What to do in the first three trading days of the Spring Festival
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Original title: What should I do if there are only three trading days left before the Spring Festival: The merger broker clearly proposed that the A-share market has only three trading days left before the Spring Festival. Should investors hold shares or hold currencies?
Since the first quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated around 3100 北京夜网 points. How will the market interpret after the Spring Festival?
After surging through the research report of financial supplementary securities firms, Surging News found that at this point, many institutions clearly put forward the view that they should hold shares for the holiday, while the spring restless market continued to look forward to.
Industrial Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, Founder Securities (right protection) shouted in unison “Holding the Festival”, the research report released by the Industrial Bank on January 19 is titled “Advancing into the Dabie Mountains: Holding the Festival”It is proposed that to continue to maintain the overall judgment of “advancing into the Dabie Mountains” from the strategic defense to the strategic offensive period, and actively act as the current choice for investors.
Specifically, the signing of the first-phase 南京夜网论坛 economic and trade agreement between China and the United States is conducive to improving the good external environment, maintaining economic stability, enhancing leadership confidence, and focusing more on internal transformation, opening up, and alternative development.
From a fundamental point of view, the easing of Sino-U.S. Relations heralds a periodical bottom-up in imports and exports. In December 2019, exports (in U.S. dollars) increased by 7.
6%, the value of imports (dollar-denominated) increased by ten years.
3%, better than expected, is the best example.
In December last year, the social financing showed that the average value of medium- and long-term loans of residents and enterprises rebounded, and the demand for physical financing was relatively stable, and they remained confident in the economic fundamentals of 2020.
In addition, Industrial Securities also believes that the Securities and Futures Commission will hold a 2020 annual working meeting. The focus is to quickly start the GEM reform and pilot registration system, continue to promote the increase of the proportion of equity funds, and expand the sources of medium and long-term funds from multiple parties to promote investment and financing.Positive signals such as balanced development.
From the “Working Together” at the Economic Work Conference in 2019 to the revision of the new securities law, and then to the content of the work conference of the Securities and Futures Commission, we can see that the reform is accelerating and the supervision of illegal activities is being strengthened.Long-term funds and equity public offering funds are increasing, and we should cherish the current round of bullish trends.
CITIC Construction Investment analyzes the fundamental factors of profitability of A-share listed companies.
The scale of the research report issued by the institution, from the perspective of performance, the overall profitability of A shares has improved, and the small and medium-sized venture sector has improved.
The proportion of small and medium-sized innovation and science and technology innovation board is more than 70%.
The proportion of companies with growth in small and medium-sized ventures accounted for more than 60%, and the number of small and medium-sized enterprises reached 70% or more.
GEM listed companies’ forecast profit growth is mainly distributed between 0-50%.
Some small and medium-sized enterprises have forecasted doubled profits, but there are also a proportion of enterprises whose growth rate has fallen by more than 50%, and their performance has been clearly differentiated.
From the perspective of investors, fund positions continued to increase, and the average return of active funds reached nearly 9%.
Equally optimistic is Founder Securities, which released a research report titled “Holding Shares Over the Holidays” on January 19, proposing that this week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival, and there is only one transaction left in January after the holiday.Day, so this week is thoughtful about whether there is a holiday of holding shares and the yin and yang of the month K line are more critical. What to do is worth acknowledging. Its view is: positive optimism, holding a holiday and live up to Shaohua.
The agency’s analysis is mainly carried out from a technical perspective.
First of all, from the daily line, the small segment market starting at 2960 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 24, 2019 clearly appeared as five waves of upward waves. After peaking at 3127 points, it fell for four days in a row, which was a small wave.Adjustment, if the first two trading days of this week do not break 3059 points, it can be regarded as a very strong adjustment, the impact on the height of popularity is minimal, the small b wave hit a new high is worth looking forward to.
About four days of adjustments last week were the same as the four-day adjustments from December 18 to 23, 2019. Both adjustments were consistent and they all fell back to the 13-day moving average.
Once again, since the Shanghai Stock Exchange started at 2857 on December 3, 2019, the largest increase has been close to 10%. After the gap rose on January 2, this year, the center was 3090 points, and the offset of around 40 points has continued for 11 trading days.However, the adjustment range is limited. This week enters the trading window of 13 trading days. If the next five trading days do not fall below 3059 points, the probability of a strong and upward breakthrough is high.
Finally, because the monthly line is coming to an end, more attention must be paid to the current month.
The current trend of the monthly line is very similar to August 2014, that is, after the monthly K-line broke through the 24-month moving average, is there no eagerness to expand the results, but it has formed a “step” of the monthly level. Only stepping on this step,With the subsequent deep development of the market, the current fundamentals support the market to continue upward.
The historical market shows that the cumulative probability convergence between the Spring Festival and the “two sessions” statistical analysis of Guotai Junan from the historical market points out that the market has performed well during the Spring Festival to the closing of the “two sessions”, and the spring market is expected to continue after the holiday.
From 1995 to 2019, the total A index from the beginning of the year to the Spring Festival increased by an average of 1.
At 83%, the closing index of the Chinese New Year and the “two sessions” rose by an average of 3 on average.
31%, in the past 25 years, 72% of the years from the Spring Festival to the “two sessions” closing period, the wind-wide A index increased, of which the average increase in the past 5 years.
From a historical perspective, the period from the Spring Festival to the “two sessions” is the expected period of market policy, and market growth probability transmission.
Guotai Junan believes that profit recovery, mild policies and a drop in risk premium are the main driving factors for the rapid market growth since December 2019.
Better economic data strengthens expectations for profit repairs. CPI is expected to fall quarter by quarter in 2020, the economy still has some downward pressure, and countercyclical policies can still be expected.
In addition, there are still some brokerages who are more cautious and think that the pre-holiday market may still be dominated by shocks.
The latest research report of Caitong Securities shows that the market environment was relatively warm last week. The first phase of the economic and trade agreement between China and the United States was on schedule and the domestic economic data stabilized and recovered.
However, the market has begun to enter a stage of shock and differentiation, mainly because the average positive factors are within the expectations of the vertical market and have been reacted. It is good to redeem the existing overlapping Chinese New Year holiday replacement. The funds will help improve mood and climb.It presents an index that fluctuates and some markets are active.
CITIC Securities believes that the market has entered a period of performance matching after the rapid rise is estimated. It is expected that the elasticity of performance will restrict the forecast expansion more and more; incremental capital investment is inherent, but it is expected to accelerate after the Spring Festival.And the market still needs time to digest the structural impact of the implementation of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement.
Which sections are more worthy of attention?
The surging news reporters sorted out the research report of the supplementary securities firms and found that finance, technology growth stocks, and pharmaceuticals are generally bullish sectors of the securities firms. Some securities firms also recommend paying attention to cyclical stocks.
CITIC Securities believes that considering the rhythm of capital inflows and the increase of incremental funds, as well as the “cost” of matching performance with variables, the best time to allocate value before the holiday is recommended to focus on banking, insurance, food and beverage, home appliances, and medicineAnd medical services.
CITIC Construction Investment also pointed out that under the environment of a periodical economic recovery and loose liquidity, this is the best window for stock and convertible bond investment, and the capital market continues to rise during the shock.
From the perspective of industry configuration, the electronics and computer industries continue to boom, and the growth stocks represented by technology 50 have been continuously recommended by the agency.
In addition, the performance of the brokerage sector is outstanding, the capital market will be more active in 2020, and the brokerage sector is also worthy of priority allocation.
Industrial Securities believes that the allocation should “go on two ends”, and one end is the leader of low valuation value in “core assets”, such as finance, real estate, cycle and other directions.
The other end is the emerging growth direction of 5G generalization in the “big innovation”, new energy vehicle chains, and advanced manufacturing.
Caitong Securities believes that investors can pay proper attention to the following directions.
First, it is a science and technology growth sector that is in line with the country’s strategic development direction and has improved prosperity.
Secondly, during the notice period of the annual report, the performance of the relevant sector targets exceeded expectations.
The third is that some of the varieties are estimated to be low and expected to enter the replenishment stage first.
The opinion of Guotai Junan’s strategy team is that the spring market is expected to continue, and the industry configuration is recommended to choose a new “β” direction.
Specifically, one is the undervalued, highly profitable and cost-effective industries, including banking, machinery, and pharmaceuticals; the second is the breakthrough in the pursuit of higher-than-expected profit growth in industries such as media, automobiles, and computers.
In terms of subdividing industries, from the perspective of the cost of configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to the industry’s concentration. There is a lot of room for improvement. At present, the industry’s prosperity index will gradually increase its profitability by 2020 and gradually replace it. Industries that have significant advantages over the leading companies, including panels, Aviation, hotel, real estate, paper packaging.
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