Shanmei International (600546): HIT project is expected to become a new point of view due to its breakthrough in performance

Shanmei International (600546): HIT project is expected to become a new point of view due to its breakthrough in performance

Event: On January 21, 2020, the company issued a 2019 annual performance pre-announcement announcement, which announced that the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 10 in 2019.

0 billion to 11.

70,000 yuan, ranking with the same period last year, will increase by 7.

8 to 9.

5 ppm, an increase of 354 in ten years.

55% to 431.

82%.

The appraisal performance has increased significantly, slightly exceeding market expectations: According to the announcement, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 was 10.

0 billion to 11.

7 trillion, an increase of 354.

55% to 431.

82%, the performance has increased significantly, in line with our expectations, exceeding market expectations (Wind consensus expectations 10).

1.1 billion).

It is estimated that the company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in the fourth quarter.

02 ppm to 3.

7.2 billion, an increase of 3 from the previous ten years.

85 to 5.

5.5 billion yuan, a significant increase in performance.

Coal production has reduced costs and increased efficiency, and coal trade has decreased: According to the announcement, the initial results of the continuous increase are: 1) Production and sales have increased steadily, and costs have been strictly controlled.

2) The performance growth caused by changes in the equity of the Hequ open-pit coal mine industry, that is, the company’s consolidated ratio of the Hequ open-air statement from January to August 2018 was 31%, and the consolidated ratio of the company’s Hequ open-air statement from January to August 2019 became 51.%, Leading to an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

3) The trade burden has been significantly reduced. Since 2016, the company has cumulatively replaced 25 trading subsidiaries in the form of equity transfer four times.

After the divestment of the best trading assets, the company’s performance burden has improved significantly, the drag on performance has been reduced, the asset quality has been greatly improved, and the company’s profits have been significantly increased.

Expected to enter the field of new energy: According to the announcement, the company and Jun Shi Energy signed a “strategic cooperation framework agreement” and plan to jointly build a 10 GW heterojunction battery production line project, which is currently the world’s largest HIT production line.

HIT batteries are considered to be one of the concerns of high conversion efficiency silicon-based solar cells, and it is expected that in the next few years, through the division of silicon wafers, reducing the amount of silver paste or promoting domestic production, and increasing the capacity of stand-alone production equipment, the methods are heterogeneous.The production cost of the technology is expected to be reduced by half.

The company’s performance and average cash flow are expected to continue to improve steadily, and the balance sheet may continue to be repaired.

At the same time, the company actively enters the military photovoltaic industry. HIT is an important direction for the future development of the industry. The company is expected to obtain a valuation that exceeds that of a single coal company.

Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 11.

07/13.

95/14.

7.4 billion yuan, equivalent to 0 EPS.

56/0.

70/0.

74.

Considering the continued prosperity of the coal industry in the future, the 淡水桑拿网 company’s performance and cash flow are expected to continue to improve steadily.

In this context, the company’s balance sheet may be constantly repaired.

At the same time, the company actively enters the military photovoltaic industry. HIT is an important direction for the future development of the industry. The company is expected to obtain a valuation that exceeds that of a single coal company.

Give Buy-A rating, 6-month target price of 12.

60 yuan, corresponding to 18xPE risk warning in 2020: coal demand has fallen sharply, and coal prices have fallen sharply; there is still uncertainty as to whether HIT projects can be formally implemented, and there is still uncertainty as to whether HIT projects can obtain the consent of relevant government departmentsThe main content of the company’s business model, investment plan, investment amount, and construction period are uncertain. The company’s first layout in the field of heterojunction batteries, the specific implementation progress and effects have some uncertainty.